When it comes to betting on American football, traditional statistics like yards gained, points scored, and turnovers can only tell you so much. To gain an edge, savvy bettors are turning to advanced metrics. Among these, DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and EPA (Expected Points Added) are two of the most powerful tools available. Let’s dive into what these metrics are and how you can use them to enhance your betting strategy.
What is DVOA?
DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Created by Football Outsiders, it measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Unlike raw statistics, DVOA accounts for the quality of the opponent. This means a four-yard gain on third-and-three against a top defense is more valuable than the same gain against a bottom-tier defense.
How to Use DVOA for Betting:
- Identify Mismatches: Look for games where one team has a significant DVOA advantage. This can help you spot potential upsets or solidify bets on favorites.
- Evaluate Trends: Teams with rising DVOA rankings are improving, even if it’s not yet reflected in their win-loss record. Conversely, declining DVOA can indicate future struggles.
- In-Game Bets: Use DVOA to evaluate how teams perform in specific situations. For example, a team with high offensive DVOA on third downs might be a good bet to convert critical plays during the game.
What is EPA?
EPA, or Expected Points Added, is another crucial metric. It estimates the points a team is expected to score based on down, distance, and field position. By comparing the expected points before and after each play, EPA measures the play’s impact on the team’s chances of scoring.
How to Use EPA for Betting:
- Analyze Play Efficiency: Teams with high EPA per play are more efficient and likely to score. Betting on these teams can be advantageous, especially when facing less efficient opponents.
- Predict Game Flow: EPA can help predict how a game might unfold. Teams with high EPA on early downs tend to sustain drives, which can lead to higher scoring games.
- Spot Value Bets: When the betting line doesn’t reflect a team’s true offensive or defensive efficiency as shown by EPA, you might find valuable betting opportunities.
One platform where you can put these insights to use is 20Bet. Known for its user-friendly interface and competitive odds, 20Bet provides an excellent environment for applying advanced metrics to your betting strategy. It offers a wide range of betting options on American football, making it a favorite among seasoned bettors.
Combining Metrics for a Comprehensive View
While DVOA and EPA are powerful on their own, combining them provides a more comprehensive analysis. For example, a team with high offensive DVOA and EPA is likely dominant and efficient, making them a strong candidate for your bets. On the other hand, if a team has a high offensive DVOA but a low defensive DVOA, you might expect high-scoring games, suggesting over bets might be profitable.
Other Metrics to Consider:
- Success Rate: This metric measures the percentage of plays that are successful based on down and distance. A high success rate indicates consistency, a valuable trait for bettors.
- Yards Per Play: While more traditional, yards per play can highlight explosive teams that gain large chunks of yardage frequently.
- Adjusted Line Yards: This stat focuses on the offensive line’s performance, crucial for betting on rushing success or predicting time of possession.
Putting It All Together
When betting on American football, relying solely on traditional stats can leave you at a disadvantage. Advanced metrics like DVOA and EPA provide deeper insights into team performance, helping you make more informed bets. By understanding and applying these metrics, you can identify hidden value, predict game outcomes more accurately, and ultimately, enhance your betting strategy.
Remember, no single metric can guarantee success. However, combining these advanced metrics with traditional analysis and a keen understanding of the game can give you a significant edge in the competitive world of sports betting.